There may be increased concerns about the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) handling the general elections in 2023 as a result of an independent investigation into attacks made against the country's electoral umpire.
According to research by Nextier SPD, a significant policy think tank, attacks on INEC spiked in the months leading up to the 2019 general elections, with 41 attacks registered against INEC on May 27, 2021.
The report also noted that attacks against INEC facilities between April and May 2021 occurred in 14 different states of Nigeria and either involved arson or vandalism.
The research, which was jointly led by Dr. Ben Nwosu and Dr. Ndu Nwokolo, both resource persons at Nextier SPD and made available to newsmen in Abuja, also revealed that there has been a resurgence of attacks on the same electoral institution in the South East region, aside from coordinated attacks on various INEC facilities between 2019 and 2021.
Giving examples to refute this assertion, it was said that on July 3, 2022, an arson attack occurred at an INEC office in the Igboeze North Local Government Area of Enugu State, which regrettably resulted in the suspension of voter registration drives in the affected local government.
“The suspension in question is problematic as many people struggling to register for participation in the 2023 ballots are likely to be disenfranchised for not having the opportunity to register. Beyond disenfranchisement, the attacks on INEC facilities have further unsettling implications for the approaching 2023 general elections,” the report observed.
Further investigation also revealed that the attacks on INEC facilities in the last two years had taken place in 14 states, including Abia, Anambra, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Borno, Cross-River, Ebonyi, Enugu, Imo, Ondo, Osun, Lagos and Taraba and Kaduna States.
Out of the 41 incidents reported in this log, there were nine incidents in 2019: 21 occurred in 2020, and 11 happened in 2021. The July 3rd 2022, attack at the INEC office in Igboeze LGA made it the 42nd violent incident on the electoral institution.
Data from reliable sources also showed that recurrent attacks on INEC facilities are significantly a Southern Nigeria problem. For instance, all five states in southeast Nigeria have recorded attacks on INEC facilities. While half of the states in the Southwest zone have recorded similar attacks, only one state made it to the list for the Northwest and then two states in the Northeast.
Surprisingly no state in Northcentral Nigeria has reported an attack on INEC facilities within the two-year tracking window.
“Arguably, attacks on INEC facilities are significant in areas with targeted onslaughts against government institutions. For instance, in recent years, security agencies often indicted the proscribed Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) for attacks in the Southeast zone.
“Despite the recurrent banditry in the Northwest and twelve years of insurgency in the Northeast, direct attacks on INEC facilities are significantly low compared to the relatively less violent southern Nigeria,” it added.
The researchers therefore suggested that INEC should reorganise security around its facilities and consider the increasing use of technology to secure its structures and equipment.
Beyond this, they insists that security reorganisation in their operational bases requires better coordination with security institutions. While the government finds a means to support the security agencies to find, arrest and punish the culprits behind the attacks and restore confidence in the citizens.
“Government should restore voter registration in the affected states to retain a modicum of confidence in the government and its institutions.
“We are of the opinion that persisting successful attacks on Nigeria’s electoral umpire is a fundamental state weakness. It means that basic civic participation cannot be guaranteed.
“As the attacks continue, electoral anxiety soars, and not many persons may be willing to exercise their rights of participation in the coming 2023 general election.
“Ultimately, such an outcome suggests that an indirect rigging of the votes would have occurred because the voters were scared off in advance without commensurate pushback from the state. Therefore, at the very core, the government should help INEC to reorganise its security, reopen voter registration and other preparations for a credible ballot,” the researchers suggested.